How Big Things Get Done
The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between
by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner
“A wonderful - and wonderfully entertaining - book. Flyvbjerg and Gardner write glowingly about the science of mega-projects and brilliantly too. With true stories of amazing projects, theirs is a view of the world that will be new to many readers.”
“A brilliant account of why major projects go over budget...Wonderfully readable and amusing...An eminently practical book that should go at the top of reading lists for project managers, investors, voters and taxpayers.”
We've all experienced it - the highway widening that takes years longer than planned, the new airport terminal that goes massively over budget, the IT overhaul that becomes an albatross. Large, complex projects known as "megaprojects" frequently run into issues with delays and cost overruns. In their book "How Big Things Get Done", authors Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner dive into analyzing why megaprojects so often go awry and what can be done to improve their success rates. Here are the top insights every leader and project manager should know:
1. Megaprojects Are the Norm, Not the Exception
The first mindset shift is realizing that megaprojects have become ubiquitous in both the public and private sectors. From developing new medicines to building infrastructure to launching new enterprise software - megaprojects drive innovation and progress in every industry. We can't avoid them, so we need to get better at delivering them successfully.
2. Understand the "Megaprojects Paradox"
Despite massive investments of time and money, megaprojects consistently fail to live up to expectations around cost, schedule, and benefits delivered. Flyvbjerg has studied hundreds of megaprojects and found that 9 out of 10 go over budget, with overruns of 50% or more being common. Schedule delays of 2-4 years are the norm as well.
3. Caused by Psychological Bias, Not Technical Issues
One might assume all these overages are due to technical complexities of the projects. But the root causes are actually psychological - cognitive biases like apathy, optimism bias, and strategic misrepresentation. Leaders and teams routinely underestimate costs and timeframes while overstating the benefits a project will deliver.
4. Reference Class Forecasting is the Solution
The antidote to optimism bias is using "reference class forecasting" based on actual data from past comparable projects. Rather than making estimates based on hope and isolated best case scenarios, reference class forecasting anchors projections based on empirical outcome data from a relevant peer group.
Here's how it works:
Identify a statistical distribution of outcomes from past similar projects
Your project will likely fall within that distribution range
Make a risk-adjusted forecast based on that data distribution
5. Accountability is Critical
Beyond reference class forecasting, the authors emphasize the importance of accountability throughout a project's lifecycle. Teams must have skin in the game, with incentives and penalties properly aligned to drive truthful reporting and protect against the "planners paradox" where promoters lowball costs to get initiatives approved.
Real accountability comes in several forms:
Having an independent party provide cost estimates to check against internal projections
Requiring leadership to personally stake their professional reputations on meeting targets
Making public commitments to projections upfront
Incorporating incentive compensation tied to achieving cost and schedule goals
6. Break Down Megaprojects Into Tranches
Another key strategy is to break megaprojects into smaller phases and tranches to improve foresight and control risk. Working in shorter release cycles allows you to incorporate real-world learnings faster and adjust as needed. You can cancel or pivot the project if required rather than blindly following a problematic multi-year plan to the point of no return.
The Path to Megaproject Success
While every megaproject faces challenges, Flyvbjerg and Gardner show there are proven tactics to dramatically improve outcomes. It starts with adopting reference class forecasting and injecting accountability into the process from day one. Leaders must have the courage to base plans and approvals on unbiased empirical data rather than falling victim to optimism and misrepresentation. By following these disciplines and breaking initiatives into tranches, organizations in any industry can begin mastering the ability to actually "get big things done."
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